Authors: T. Olason, M. Lafreniere
Abstract
Inflow forecasts are one of the key inputs to the short-term scheduling of hydroelectric generation. An inflow forecast module is therefore an essential part of an operational Decision Support System (DSS) for hydro scheduling. Inflow forecasts are required for natural or unregulated inflows into various lakes, reservoirs and river sections of interest. The forecast time step and forecast lead-time (time horizon) are determined by the time step and the scheduling horizon. For the Vista DSS software developed by Acres International, the time step is one hour and the scheduling can be done up to two weeks into the future. In this paper the basis of the operational flow-forecasting module of the Vista DSS software and its application to flow forecasting for 16 basins within NS Power’s hydroelectric system are presented. The various tasks involved in real-time operational forecasting and the methods employed by ‘Inflow Vista’ are meteorological forecasts, review and monitoring of hydro-metrological data, updating of the state variables in the module, and the review and adjustment of sub-watershed forecasts.
